By Magara Darious
Uganda has been experiencing high temperatures, but the Uganda Meteorological Authority (UNMA) is quick to clarify that these are not heat waves, but rather above-average temperatures typical of the period preceding the March-April-May rainfall season.
According to UNMA, February is usually one of the hottest months in Uganda, with daytime temperatures ranging from 24°C to 33°C (75°F to 91°F), and peaks of up to 40°C/104°F in the far north. This year’s high temperatures are attributed to various climate drivers, including prevailing El Nino conditions, Equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures, Indian Ocean Dipole, and high-pressure systems, combined with local geographical features.
Since the 1960s, Uganda has experienced an average temperature increase of approximately 1.3 °C. This increase is not uniform across the country; maximum temperatures have risen by 0.6 to 0.9 °C during this period. Projections suggest that by 2041-2070, mean monthly air temperatures could rise by an additional 1.5 to 3.0 °C, and by 2071-2100, temperatures may increase by 2.0 to 4.5 °C
Current Temperature Context
In the early 1960s, average temperatures were significantly lower, contributing to a more stable climate conducive to agriculture and local ecosystems but as of now, average temperatures have reached levels that are increasingly challenging for traditional farming practices and local health conditions.
Uganda is currently experiencing high temperatures, with some areas reaching extreme highs. For instance, temperatures in the north-eastern sub-region of Karamoja have been particularly scorching, with districts like Amudat severely affected by drought. The temperatures have risen by up to 1.5 °C across much of the country since the 1980s, with estimates suggesting a further 2 °C rise in the coming years.
The impact of these high temperatures on communities has been significant. Pastoralists and surrounding communities in Amudat district, for example, are struggling to adapt to the changing climate, with drought making it even harder to transition to agriculture. The high temperatures have also led to increased incidents of respiratory and eye diseases, reduced pastures for animals, and potential water resource depletion.
Examples of Affected Areas
1.Southwestern Uganda: This region has seen temperature increases of about 0.3 °C per decade, leading to a rise in malaria cases, particularly in areas where the disease was previously uncommon . South-western Uganda, where temperatures have risen by 0.3 degrees in a decade, is one of the hardest-hit areas in terms of disease outbreaks, especially malaria. A NAPA survey found an increase in malaria cases of 43 percent in Ntungamo District, 51 percent in Kabale and 13 percent in Mbarara.
- Rwenzori Mountains: The ice caps on the Rwenzori Mountains along Uganda’s western border have receded significantly in the past century and could disappear completely in the next few years, experts said. ”The results of recent mapping are alarming,” Philip Gwage, assistant commissioner in charge of meteorology in the ministry of water and environment, said. “Over the last 100 years, the total glacier area has dropped from 650ha in 1906 to a mere 108ha in 2005. At this rate the Rwenzori will be completely with no glaciers by 2025.” Already, melting ice caps have hit water catchments and eco-tourism.
- Karamoja Region: This northeastern area faces cycles of drought and conflicts over water and pasture, exacerbated by rising temperatures .
Impact on communities
These rising temperatures have profound effects on Ugandan communities both positive and negative impacts. While some vendors, like Elias Kiggundu, have seen an increase in sales due to the heat, others, like Evelyne Nyakato, are struggling to cope with the extreme temperatures. However, there are concerns about the potential impacts on various sectors, including health, agriculture, and wildlife.
– Agricultural Disruption: Agriculture, which employs over 76% of the workforce, is highly sensitive to climate changes. Increased temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns threaten staple crops like coffee, cassava, and soya, leading to reduced yields and food insecurity and reduced pastures for animals. Other crops such as cassava and soya would be affected by new pests, despite being staple crops. There are many negative impacts of climate change.
– Health Risks: Higher temperatures have contributed to a rise in vector-borne diseases, particularly malaria, with reports indicating a 43% increase in malaria cases in some districts due to climate change. The persistent dry conditions and high temperatures may lead to increased incidents of respiratory and eye diseases. The NAPA report notes that malaria has increased countrywide, including in south-western highland areas where it was not prevalent before A NAPA survey found an increase in malaria cases of 43 percent in Ntungamo District, 51 percent in Kabale and 13 percent in Mbarara.
– Water Scarcity: The instability of water supply has become a critical issue, particularly in rural areas, leading to health risks associated with waterborne diseases and potential water resource depletion.
– Reduced capacity for electricity generation, which would have an impact on the economy.
Causes of Rising Temperatures
Several factors contribute to the rising temperatures in Uganda:
-Climate Change: Global climate change is the primary driver, leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions and altering weather patterns, with Uganda’s location near the equator making it particularly vulnerable to rising global temperatures. Other factors, such as El Nino conditions, Equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures, Indian Ocean Dipole, and high-pressure systems, combined with local geographical features, are also playing a role.
– Deforestation: Uganda has lost significant forest cover, with over 90,000 hectares disappearing annually, contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and disrupting local ecosystems
– Urbanization: Rapid urbanization without proper planning has exacerbated environmental degradation, further impacting local climates
Measures Taken and Future Plans
– The Ugandan government and various organizations have been working together to implement adaptation strategies. For example, efforts are being made to restore forests, which should increase forest coverage from 14% to 21% by 2030.⁴ However, more needs to be done, and quickly, to address the scale and urgency of the crisis.
– UNMA has issued advisories, including community health education campaigns, increased surveillance of disease incidences, and land preparation measures for anticipated rains. Fortunately, light showers are expected to start soon, bringing some relief to the country.
– National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA): This strategy aims to increase awareness of climate issues within local communities and invest in science and technology for better weather forecasting
– Community-Based Water Facilities: Many communities are building water facilities such as boreholes and rainwater harvesting systems to improve water access and resilience against climate variability
– Awareness Campaigns: Efforts are underway to educate communities about the impacts of climate change and promote sustainable practices .
– In terms of what’s in the pipeline, there are plans to continue promoting climate-resilient agriculture, improving water harvesting and storage, and enhancing disaster preparedness and response. However, these efforts require significant funding and support, and it remains to be seen whether they will be sufficient to address the scale of the challenge.
Conclusion
The rising temperatures in Uganda pose significant challenges to the country’s communities, particularly in agriculture, health, and water supply. The increase from historical averages to current levels highlights the urgency of addressing climate change impacts. While measures are being implemented to address these issues, ongoing efforts are crucial to mitigate the impacts of climate change and enhance community resilience.
About the author;
Magara Darious is a climate change activist and Ugandan based journalist
