By Nathan Kikku Mubiru|13/07/2025
One of the messages that Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu(Bobi Wine) has reiterated to his party members in the build-up to the general election is the importance of seizing this opportunity to be agents of change.
Kyagulanyi has reminded his followers that they are on the verge of being the group to end the opposition’s cycle of near-misses and disappointments and write their names into Uganda’s history.
The opposition boss has referred to the images of previous greats lining the walls of the party headquarters and his office, most of which are now painfully dead, and told the supporters that they could be up there alongside Frank Ssenteza, Ritah Nabukenya, Kawuma, John Bosco Kibalama, Kawanga Ssemwogerere et al in the future.
Bobi Wine’s pep talks have not drawn on his own position but if NUP do win the 2026 election, the same is true for him; he too would be part of opposition’s folklore and immediately become one of the most important figures in the party’s recent history.
The wretched parliamentary performance and even Kyagulanyi’s tetchy relationship with other supporters, which has felt strained for the best part of the term now, would effectively be memory-holed amid the euphoria of a first democratic change of government since 1962 and the end of opposition’s 39-year wait for victory.
Over the last few months, Bobi Wine has railed against what he perceives as a gathering of malign forces: Democratic Front supporters seeking to goad him into a reaction; negativity from the media; a lack of public support for NUP in the punditry class; and even a deafening silence from his colleagues on board.
A NUP victory in the January 14th general election would allow Bobi to rise above the alleged naysayers into a position of real strength and be an unequivocal vindication of his roba doba approach and everything that has come with it, including writing off the election petition 2021.
The other possibility, however, is that NUP lose to NRM for the second time in two meetings, and Bobi Wine is remembered as the leader who led the opposition to their worst-ever electoral finishes in a historically miserable campaign.
In that scenario, he would go down as the president who oversaw a record 21 defections (and counting) in a 57-MP campaign and, by his own admission, failed to unify a fractured party.
The stakes therefore appear sky-high for Kyagulanyi this election cycle, not least because his future at NUP inevitably feels wrapped up in the result.
If NUP fall short and lose a second presidential election in five years, it would be hard to see the 47-year-old continuing in post beyond the end of the campaign.
It would be unclear where Bobi Wine could go from there; would he be able to get another term?
Conversely, it would be difficult to imagine NUP, ruthlessly dismissing the head who delivered an historic triumph, assuming of course that Bobi Wine wants to stay on.
So much of Kyagulanyi’s tenure has felt predicated on mood and vibes, and the energy would be so positive in victory that dismissing the head might be a tough call, especially as there is no compelling alternative waiting in the wings.
There is a plausible scenario in which Kyagulanyi triumphantly walks away by mutual consent to become party chairman.
As NUP prepare for 2026, Bobi Wine is therefore in a strange position, teetering between hero and clown.
He is, incidentally, all too aware of this fine line and rightly pointed out recently that one result should not define him as a leader nor impact his previous achievements.
That, though, is the way the cookie has crumbled for Kyagulanyi, in part because of choices of his own.
The president was billed as a risk-taker when he joined the presidential race, someone prepared to put his neck on the line and do things his way.
His future and status may feel less binary if say, NUP had picked up in the youth elections to achieve a healthy percentage and achieved more than thirty (30) members of parliament 2026.
Instead, Bobi Wine has rolled the dice, leaving his fate still yet to be decided.
About the author;
Nathan Kikku Mubiru is a Medical laboratory Scientific officer (MLSO)
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